The Uncertain Future of Quick Commerce in India The report cautions that its growth could disrupt India's traditional grocery ecosystem, prompting regulatory scrutiny. Policymakers may step in to ensure that small retailers and local supply chains are not negatively impacted by the dominance of ultra-fast delivery services.

India's quick commerce sector has been on an unprecedented growth trajectory, transforming the way consumers access everyday essentials. However, despite its meteoric rise, the industry is beginning to encounter significant roadblocks that could challenge its sustainability. The Indus Valley 2025 report, published by venture capital firm Blume Ventures, paints a complex picture of an industry that has expanded at an extraordinary pace but now faces market saturation, regulatory concerns, and increasing competition from larger e-commerce players.

The report highlights that quick commerce has experienced a 24-fold increase in gross order value (GOV) from $300 million in 2022 to $7.1 billion in FY25, making it India's fastest-growing industry segment. Dominated by players such as Blinkit, Zepto, and Swiggy Instamart, the sector has rapidly gained ground, serving customers in high-density urban areas with ultra-fast deliveries. The industry's projected Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) are set to reach 128 million, but Blume Ventures warns that this growth might not be sustainable in the long run.

The report draws parallels between quick commerce and India's ride-hailing and food delivery sectors, both of which saw explosive growth before experiencing a plateau in user adoption. "As Quick Commerce's success inspires larger horizontal and vertical ecommerce players to start their experiments, we are likely to see a speeding up of delivery times in India across most types of deliveries. We will be a Quickish Commerce country," the report states, suggesting that while quick commerce is unlikely to disappear, its dominance may soon be challenged.

Source: Blume Ventures Report

One of the key threats to existing quick commerce players is the entry of deep-pocketed competitors like Walmart-owned Flipkart, Amazon, and Reliance. These e-commerce giants have been preparing to launch their own rapid delivery services, potentially squeezing the profitability of dedicated quick commerce firms. "While it is not guaranteed they will be able to counter Quick Commerce players, the increased competition will have some impact on the Quick Commerce industry profit pool," the report notes, emphasizing the financial strain that increased rivalry could place on the sector.

Beyond competitive pressures, the rapid expansion of quick commerce is also raising concerns about its long-term sustainability. The report cautions that its growth could disrupt India's traditional grocery ecosystem, prompting regulatory scrutiny. Policymakers may step in to ensure that small retailers and local supply chains are not negatively impacted by the dominance of ultra-fast delivery services.

The industry's viability has also been questioned by experts. TVS Capital Funds chairman, Gopal Srinivasan, recently told Reuters that India's quick commerce boom is a "passing fad" and is unlikely to be a sustainable business model in the long run. The financial struggles of quick commerce firm Dunzo—an early entrant backed by Blume Ventures—further underscore the fragility of the business model. Dunzo has been grappling with mass layoffs, founder departures, and unpaid vendor dues, raising doubts about the profitability of quick commerce at scale.