India's Smartphone Exports: Analysing Industry Data on US Tariff Effects Diving deep into the disagreement between GTRI and ICEA on India's smartphone exports affected by US tariffs.

India's smartphone sector has successfully transitioned from once relying primarily on imports to large-scale manufacturing and assembling, and global exports, making it one of the best success stories of the 'Make in India' initiative. But has this momentum begun slowing down due to the recent tariffs imposed by the US? There are claims and then counterclaims. Let's dive deeper into this.

If the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) is to be believed, raised import duties have led to exports to the US plummeting by 58% from May to August 2025, declining from USD 2.29 billion to USD 964.8 million.

The research firm, which tracks India's imports and exports and related policies, claims that exports in May 2025 stood at USD 2.29 billion, followed by USD 2 billion in June 2025. The firm reports that exports continued to decline in July 2025 to USD 1.5 billion, followed by USD 964.8 million in August.

The report, however, said that the US was India's largest smartphone market, importing smartphones worth USD 10.6 billion in the fiscal year 2025. This, according to GTRI, contributed 44% of global smartphone exports, followed by the EU with USD 7.1 billion (29.5%).

A pinch of salt?

The India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA), an established industry body for mobile phones, electronics, and semiconductors manufacturing which regularly publishes production and export data, has strongly rejected the GTRI data. The industry body said that GTRI arrived at improper conclusions related to smartphone exports by "cherry-picking" data, leading to "wrong inferences" and without "proper context".

The ICEA said that smartphone exports in August 2025 had in fact increased by 39% from USD 1.09 billion in August 2024 to USD 1.53 billion in August 2025. It also said that exports to the US had more than doubled, growing by 148%, from USD 388 million in August 2024 to USD 965 million in August 2025.

It also shared that smartphone exports to the US, in the first five months of FY26, had hit USD 8.43 billion compared to USD 2.88 billion during the same period in the previous fiscal year, recording a whopping 193% surge.

"In fact, the US figure for April-August 2025 has already reached nearly 80% of the entire FY25 US exports total of USD 10.56 billion," the ICEA report said.

"Every export sector has its particular nuances based on multiple factors. Oversimplification of trade data - and worse - inferences based on monthly comparisons is misleading and avoidable. It's important that subject matter experts are consulted before drawing sector-specific conclusions," said ICEA Chairman Pankaj Mohindroo.

Between the lines

The ICEA also dives deeper into analysing the smartphone export data.

It adds that August and September are usually the months when smartphone exports decline due to a few reasons. One of the primary reasons is that companies launch new smartphone models in late September and October ahead of the festival season. A lot of consumers delay their purchasing in August as they wait for newer models. Also, some consumers prefer to wait for the festive season sale to buy older devices at deep discounts. This trend leads to a drop in exports but eventually picks up in October as and when new models arrive.

"August and early September also sees large-scale retrofitting of plant and machinery to prepare for new models which leads to reduction in output, and in turn, exports. This is carefully planned to coordinate with demand," the ICEA said.

"It's also worth noting that the smartphone sector has been the best performing export sector in India over the last five years since the launch of the PLI scheme, increasing its position from 167th in FY'15 to India's largest export by HS code by FY'25," it added.

Tariffs not a challenge?

As mentioned earlier, India has made giant strides in local smartphone manufacturing and is also making efforts to make it wholesome through initiatives focused on semiconductors.

Since the pandemic, there has been a strategic shift in global brands' approach to manufacturing, which heavily depended on China. Over the last few years, we have seen brands trying to diversify their supply chains as well as use India as a testbed as an alternative to China's manufacturing dominance.

Surprisingly, Apple is at the forefront of this transition, though it has not completely done away with China as yet. According to reports, Apple assembled iPhones worth USD 22 billion in the fiscal year 2025, marking a 60% growth from the previous year. Its exports from India also jumped 53% year-over-year.

Apple's aggressive push is driven by its partnerships with Foxconn and Tata Electronics. It's worth highlighting that Foxconn has announced plans to inject another USD 1.5 billion investment into India operations and is producing recent models from its facility. Tata Electronics is also becoming a fast and serious player in assembling/manufacturing with its acquisition of Wistron's operations and a stake in Pegatron's Indian business.

A very recent Moneycontrol report says that Apple is rapidly expanding its supply chain in the country. And to achieve that, it is sourcing components for iPhones and has also begun manufacturing machinery essential to produce these devices locally. Moreover, there are about 35 companies that are manufacturing such machinery, and nearly half of them are now working with Apple, the report added.

There are also unconfirmed reports of Apple planning to manufacture its long-rumoured foldable iPhones in India and is also moving the assembly of all iPhone 17 models to five factories across India. This is significant as it will be the first time every new iPhone variant is being produced in the country from the launch.

Apple's aggressive push to double down on India cannot be without factoring in the tariffs imposed by the US For the iPhone-maker, local manufacturing also helps address the local demand as well as global markets. Just to note, Apple's market share in India has grown significantly over the past few years.

"Apple maintained its strong performance, with shipments growing 21.5% YoY to 5.9 million units in the first half of 2025. The iPhone 16 was the highest-shipped model across India in 1H25, making up 4% of overall India shipments during that period," according to an IDC report published last month.

As one analyst explains it to us, "Apple's accelerated shift of iPhone production to India is a direct response to US tariffs, making India the most preferred hub for catering to the American market and diversifying its supply chain away from China," said a senior analyst at a consumer tech tracking research firm requesting anonymity.

Similarly, Motorola has also made a strategic pivot to increasing its local sourcing of components to strengthen its manufacturing ecosystem and increase domestic value addition through the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme as well as exports. According to reports, Motorola had shipped nearly up to 25% of its locally manufactured devices to the US. This is likely to further increase as the company scales up its operations.

Other brands like Samsung and Xiaomi have also made great progress in local manufacturing and global exports.

That said, ICEA's data shows that India has more or less become a big part of the strategic shift from the global brands.

"The data shows India is no longer an emerging destination; it has become a critical node in the global electronics supply chain. It is now playing an indispensable role in production volumes, supply chain resilience, and most importantly technological innovation," another analyst told Entrepreneur India.

To sum it up, it's indeed correct that sales slowdown in certain parts of the year. For instance, sales pick up during the holiday season in the West. As far as India is concerned, it does not appear that international brands are likely to slow down on their push in India as well as exports from here. Moreover, there are hints of the US and India reaching a trade deal sooner or later. Though, a longer wait could eventually lead to some effect.