Festive Spikes Remain, but India's E-Commerce is Becoming Year-Round: Report Mobiles and electronics remain volatile, with Seasonality Index Differences of 1.7 and 1.3 respectively, compared to grocery (0.3) and BPC (0.4), which see steady demand throughout the year

India's e-commerce market is undergoing "de-seasonalization," shifting from festival-driven spikes to steady, year-round demand. While Diwali still fuels high-ticket sales like mobiles and electronics, a new Redseer report shows consumers are now shopping more consistently throughout the year, signaling a major structural change in online retail.

The market itself is already sizeable and growing fast, valued at approximately INR 13 lakh crore (USD 151 billion) in 2025, and projected to reach about USD 345 billion by 2030.

The report analyses six key sectors of online retail, including mobiles, electronics, home & furniture, fashion, grocery, and beauty & personal care (BPC), and finds significant variation in how seasonal each category is. Mobiles and electronics are the most volatile, with Seasonality Index Differences of 1.7 and 1.3 respectively, compared to grocery (0.3) and BPC (0.4), which see steady demand throughout the year.

The Seasonality Index measures how sharply sales fluctuate during peak periods; a lower index indicates stable, consistent demand, while a higher one points to strong festive spikes.

Grocery and Beauty See Steady Demand

Nikhil Dalal, Associate Partner at Redseer, who co-authored the report, said, "Overall, categories like grocery, beauty, personal care, and home essentials (FMCG) have largely been constant. These are predictable by nature because they are household needs, so the demand is largely consistent."

The rise of quick commerce platforms has further flattened the curve for these categories. For example, in 2024, quick commerce accounted for over two-thirds of all e-grocery orders and approximately one-tenth of total e-retail spend.

Dalal added that regional and cultural factors introduce only minor fluctuations. "In personal care, moisturizers and body care products sell more in North India during winters due to the colder weather, so there's slight seasonality there. Similarly, in FMCG, gifting as a category shows spikes during Diwali. But overall, grocery, FMCG, and beauty or personal care show consistent demand throughout the year, with small peaks during specific events."

Fashion: Partially Seasonal, Still Occasion-Led

Fashion, Dalal explained, has "some seasonality, not completely, but we see spikes during summer sales, Diwali, and the winter or wedding season in November and later."

While fashion purchases now happen year-round due to frequent online sales and more occasions, festive and winter periods still see higher spending. "Apparel, for example, is both occasion-led and platform-led, winterwear spikes due to both seasonal needs and sales," he said.

The online fashion-ecommerce market in India is estimated at USD 21.6 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach nearly USD 98.5 billion by 2032. This suggests strong long-term growth even though seasonal peaks remain.

Mobiles and Electronics: Still Festive Favorites

"The third category, mobiles and electronics, is distinctly seasonal," Dalal said, adding, "Launches like the latest iPhones, which happen before Diwali, drive spikes. Electronics also see seasonal trends, ACs sell more during summer, and platforms plan events accordingly."

He noted that "for high-ticket categories like fashion and electronics, people wait for discounts during festive sales. In metros and tier-2 cities, fashion and electronics show higher seasonality compared to essentials."

For example, the monthly demand index for mobiles in festival months approaches around 2.3 times the average, and for electronics, around 2.0 times, underscoring how steep the spikes are.

Tier-II and III Cities Drive Growth

Over half of India's e-commerce users now come from smaller cities, where discounts and festivals strongly influence purchase decisions.

"Tier II cities contribute in a big way, so the festive season continues to be an important driver. At least Diwali and similar major festivals remain crucial, and throughout the year, many other festive events keep happening, which also drive engagement," Dalal said.

Recent data indicates that Tier-3 and smaller cities now account for around 60 per cent of new online shoppers in India, and contributed to over half of all Diwali 2025 orders across major platforms.

While the report indicates a gradual "de-seasonalization" of e-commerce, Dalal maintained that festivals will continue to play an outsized role in driving overall Gross Merchandise Value (GMV).

What Brands Need to Do Now

As India's e-commerce market becomes more de-seasonalized, brands and platforms now need to match growing demand with faster deliveries and smarter inventory planning.

Dalal called logistics "the main backbone of the ecosystem," noting that "same-day or next-day delivery might become the norm within the next one or two years.

He added that while quick commerce players already operate with in-house fleets, "traditional e-commerce players, both horizontal marketplaces and D2C brands, need to plan inventory and logistics to handle festive surges and ensure product availability."